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With the recent ruckus over university admissions, one cannot help but wonder what is going on in Singapore with regards to higher education. Is it true that it is getting harder to get into university today? One blogger in particular has insinuated that the government has failed to provide adequate education opportunities for its citizens.
Before we continue, it is important to establish a basic principle: is it right for citizens to get priority for university admission? The KTM's view is "yes, citizens should most definitely have priority over foreigners". The question is not matter of yes or no, but a matter of degree. Hypothetically, suppose we only admit foreigners who have at least 3 A's, how low should the bar be for the locals? Should we admit locals with 3 D's ahead of foreigners with 3 A's as a right of citizenship? Where and how do we draw the line?
Getting the Facts Straight
People nowadays seem to like to open their gaps without getting their facts straight. Even when "not following a matter closely" also got things to say. Yeah lah, yeah lah, so much for the Government encouraging people to speak up. Now lots of people speak up and we're better off? :-P
To begin, let's examine the two newspaper cases: (i) student with A,B,E couldn't get a place; and (ii) student with 4A's and 2 'S' Paper distinctions couldn't get a place in pharmacy. Why did this happen?
First, we have to understand the market rate. Do people know how many students are getting at least 3 and 4 A's in each cohort? The KTM doesn't have the numbers exactly, but it's probably more than a thousand.
There is an argument that that all Singaporeans with the "requisite grades" should not be denied a place. That is a good argument, but what is the "requisite grade"? The parent of the first student probably thinks that A,B,E is requisite enough. Question one: is he right? Question two: who should decide? Parents (citizens) decide huh?
Second, something like 10% of the university places is outside the regular system so that students can be admitted on basis of dunno what talent. Apparently talent is not well-defined, but then again, can talent be well-defined? Nevertheless, this has given rise to complaints that the system is therefore not meritocratic 'cos some 2-A student can be admitted ahead of a 4-A student. The KTM's view: these fellas complaining should wake up their idea and realise that meritocracy is not solely defined by grades lah. There is another camp who believes there should be this flexibility and 10% isn't too much to ask to try to pacify them is it?
That leaves the rest of the 90% (not counting Medicine, Dentistry and Law which have by traditional had this rather opaque system of selecting their students to begin with) who are admitted on the basis of this dunno what point system. MOE has come out to clarify (for dunno what reason, since people should already know) that this point system is based on best three A-Level grades plus GP, mother tongue and dunno what Project Work.
What this means is that if you have a student with 4 A's, 2 'S' Paper Distinctions, A1 in GP and a lousy grade for Project Work, he will have a lower score than a student who only took three A Level subjects and scored all A's and who got A1's in GP and Project Work. Does this make sense?
Some may say no 'cos the fella with 'S' Papers has more merit? Well, if we will start to count the dunno what 'S' Papers and give priority to the students with 4 A-Level subjects over those with 3 A-Level subjects, it will disadvantage the students from the lower ranked JCs, which has disproportionally more students who take only 3 A-Level subjects. Personally, the KTM thinks that the present system is fine. No need to place unnecessary emphasis on mugging. For those who do not aspire to scholarships, just let them focus on 3 A-Level subjects and have more time to do other things can or not? If the so-called smart students wanna take dunno what 'S' Papers and do badly in GP or Project Work, then whose fault?
In any case, it is not like that student with 4 A's and 2 'S' Papers couldn't get a place in university. He just couldn't get a place in Pharmacy which is probably a very small course and given that there must be more than a thousand students with at least 3 A-Level distinctions, is it surprising? The student in question probably messed up either GP or Project Work or something. Before people get all excited, there is definitely some sense in the madness.
Understanding the Macro Picture
Some have claimed that it is harder to get into a local university. That's absolutely bogus. The university enrolment per cohort has been climbing steadily from 20 percent to something like 23 percent today (with the building of SMU) and it's not stopping here. The Government has apparently promised that the number will eventually reach 25 percent per cohort.
There are more places going around, and when there's all this talk about dunno what Dragon year babies, people please give the bureaucrats a bit more credit lah. People think they stupid and dunno how to increase the number of university places? Of course as Aaron highlighted, there is a capacity limit and it's not like it is practical to build yet another university just to cater to this seasonal surge.
Let's ask ourselves, what is the surge we are talking about? How many extra students? The number of Dragon babies is supposedly around 53K compared to 43.5K for a typical cohort. This represents an additional 23% x 9,500 = approximately 2,200 places. Conceivably, this translates to something like 900 extra students for NUS and NTU and say 400 for SMU if they want to share the burden. Even if NUS and NTU cannot absorb an extra 900 students this year, it is really a problem to take 450 extra this year and another 450 more next year. Share the burden among the faculties and problem solved without having to do anything drastic like building another university what. It turns out (according to ST) that "at NUS, 15,700 A level school leavers from the Dragon year cohort applied, an increase of about 2,200 from 13,500 in 2006," and so the increase in applications is actually less than what one would predict if we extrapolated proportionally (in the calculations above), and so perhaps the squeeze is even less than expected.
Of course, some people will have to wait an extra year, but tough luck and really it's not a big deal because we didn't account for NS. Believe it or not, NS ameliorates the problem by delaying the boys for two years (and they get two more chances to try their luck). The KTM actually wonders whether it's actually a capacity problem to begin with..... perhaps MOE just tried too hard at making up some lousy reason that it hoped would appease the irate parents? Then again, official Government replies have always been one of those mysteries in life. :-)
The KTM's basic point is that even at the macro level, it's not a big deal if we look at the numbers, so what's going on? The KTM believes that people are just getting more vocal. There's a theory that he who shouts the loudest gets heard. That's what the ST Forum Page has become hasn't it? Public complaint bureau what. :-)
The Problem with Foreigners
Alright, but even if we show that nothing really changed this year except that more Dragon parents means more whining, it doesn't mean that all is well does it? At the end of the day, it is true that Singaporeans are denied a place in the local university because of the large number of foreigners, is it not?
Is it not right for us to educate our locals better so that our Singaporeans (who have to do NS), are better equipped to compete instead of importing the foreigners to compete with them and steal their jobs? This is an extremely persuasive argument and the KTM also buys it.
We need to ask some questions:
(1) How are the locals doing? And we're not talking about those at the top. We're talking about those at the bottom. Are they doing well? If we increase the enrolment, are these extra fellas going to be doing better or worse? :-P Can they even pass or will the universities be forced to lower standards just to pass them?
(2) How are the foreigners doing relative to the Singaporeans? Well, turns out the KTM has an answer to this question and it's probably no surprise to many: the foreign students are doing on average better than the locals. Of course there are those who do badly, but there's no avoiding some selection errors.
It turns out that there are two things happening. First, the quotas on the foreign students are separate from the locals and as a result, there is no doubt that the bar for the foreign students is higher. Thanks to the liberal number of scholarships, there are very few brilliant local students left at our local universites and the KTM's understanding that the foreigners are needed to prop up the standards.
As for the bar for the locals, it is already quite low. Ask the faculties whether they think it will be a good idea to increase enrolment and the answer is very likely no. Unfortunately, MOE is probably not going to care what the local universities think. There is a 25% target per cohort that must be reached and the target will die die be reached regardless of what the universities think.
The KTM has no doubt that if all our students have the capability to do well in university, the Government should pay. The question is: who should decide who has the capability to do well (at admission)? Parents ah? :-P
Singaporeans should therefore quit bitching so much 'cos life will only be getting better for their kids. Let us not kid ourselves and think that Singaporeans students are getting smarter with each passing cohort. Dun believe that KTM, just go and talk to the long time teachers. Overall grades are getting better? Yeah, there's something called grade inflation if people don't realize it.
The second thing that is really happening is that the foreign students are not imported to study the choice courses at NUS/NTU. How many foreigners do we think are doing Medicine or Law? The foreign students typically end up doing Science and Engineering which are somewhat unpopular with our locals (and therefore get the weaker students, which further exacerbates the gap between the local and foreign students).
Tinkering with the System
Is the KTM suggesting that the system is perfect and cannot be changed? Far from it, but people must understand what is really wrong before anything can be done. "My son/daughter cannot get into university" is NOT an urgent problem to be fixed.
What seems to be a problem is that due to the way the university places are assigned, lots of people are stuck in courses that they dun like. Why? Because they have a low cut-off point and are shafted there and cannot get into their course of choice. But they got no choice also because their parents die die want them to get a degree, any degree. So we have a situation where weak students are stuck doing something they absolutely detest. Tendency is that they will do poorly and end up doing something completely different (but at least got a degree mah.... *sigh*).
NUS and NTU are probably too big. This causes a huge disparity in the standards among their students. Makes the transfer between courses quite hard if courses are allocated by "merit" (meaning A-Level grades, but got other options meh?). Having more and smaller universities will give rise to more homogeneous populations within each university and make it easy to accomodate students who seriously need to change their course of study. Of course, the same will give rise to third and fourth-tier universities.... but what do we expect? Have cake and eat it?
Finally, we have to come to terms with the fact that the A-Levels can be quite a lousy predictor of ability and performance at the university, though it does continue to have some usefulness in maintaining this semblance of meritocracy and "fairness". What perhaps needs to be done is to allow for more margins for error instead of expecting perfection.
While we have to come to terms with the fact that probably no more than 25% of each cohort has the ability to complete a university education meaningfully within the 4 years typically allocated for undergraduate studies (without universities being forced to lower standards too much), the A-Levels doesn't give us the "correct" 25%. What to do? Simple. Increase the initial intake by say 20% (out of the 23% lah) and flunk out the 20% who cannot make the grade after the first (or maybe second) year.
If the KTM gets to make the decision, he will do this in a heatbeat. Six million dollar question: are we (MOE and parents) WILLING to adopt such a policy? The Government in its typical penny-counting way will cringe at the "wastage" both in terms of funding that one year that is "wasted" and in terms of the student's time 'cos they could have used that year to go to poly (where they can better cope) or better still, work and contribute to the economy.
Parents? Definitely will send more letters to the Forum Page lambasting the university professors (and maybe MOE, but MOE sure to taichi to the universities) for being mean and nasty and DEMANDING that their children be allowed to complete their universities educations BECAUSE THEY GOT ADMITTED, conveniently forgetting that it was actually an "act of mercy" to begin with. :-) But what's new?
The Myth of the Australian Graduate
There is one last point that the KTM would like to address and it's this point about "poor Singaporeans being forced to send their kids overseas" and "their kids do really well" and hence were deserving of a place at the local universities to begin with. On this point, the KTM doesn't have facts and so will just tell a story.
There was a time when the KTM wasn't a kway teow man and he was actually sitting at the interviewer's side of the table hiring for some entry-level jobs. There were these two Singaporean graduates from two pretty well-known Australian universities, which the KTM will not name (no, not UNSW :-P). Both (one guy and one girl) got First Class Honours in Economics and both got pretty medicre A-Level grades, which "forced them to study overseas".
The guy came first and this guy made a big impression 'cos he has straight D's for his A-Levels. Seriously, people must understand that while straight A's are quite common this day and age, straight D's + 1st Class Honours isn't common by a long shot. Anyhow, the KTM did his job and grilled him inside out to determine whether he really had a First Class brain. It turns out that the fella really knew what he was saying, so he got his job. :-)
The girl came the following day. It turned out that Alan Greenspan announced a 0.25% increase in interest rate that very morning, so the KTM asked the girl to explain the implications of the increase in interest rate. Seemed like a basic enough question. The girl just stared at the KTM blankly. Cannot respond. Whoa. First Class Honours in Econs and cannot even do some BS? No need to get the right answer even. Just throw some chim Economics terms at the KTM to confuse and confound him also can. Well, as one can guess, the KTM came to the conclusion that the girl wasn't First Class material and she didn't get the job.
Moral of the story? There are several:
(a) First Class Honours from an Australian university can actually mean squat (but it's not like it's not worth anything either so no need for people to flame the KTM on this point). Point is: First Class Honours from a foreign university is not necessarily indicative of "merit" and the KTM didn't think that it was wrong for the local universities to have rejected the girl. Many local graduates (without First Class Honours) performed significantly better at the interview and got hired ahead of the girl, who wasn't even on the waiting list. People have to wake up to the reality that it's really the JOB that matters not the dunno what grades in school. Cannot get the job, First Class also no use.
(b) There are Singaporeans who are late bloomers and who actually have the potential to do well. Nevertheless, it is not reasonable to lower NUS/NTU admission requirements to straight D's lah. Let's be realistic.
(c) It is not the end of the world to get straight D's (or lousy A-Level grades of some other flavour). While the KTM has left his previous job a long time, the guy he hired stayed on and has in fact done very well all these years.
(d) First Class Honours means squat if one cannot talk properly at a job interview. Job interviews are probably much more important than the resume. The resume (good grades?) earns one a chance to get interviewed. Actually getting the job requires one to perform at the interview.
The Bigger Picture -- Where are we heading?
All this ruckus over the university admissions is really not a big deal at all. It is merely symptomatic of evolution on the part of our society -- for better or for worse. Like it or not, with Singaporeans becoming more educated, they will get increasingly vocal and demanding. The parent for the kid with A,B,E said it was no shame fighting for the rights of his child, notwithstanding his apparently self-admitted "unreasonableness". The KTM actually agrees with him.
The world moves on. Society evolves. What seems to be a problem is that the Government PR machinery has not (evolved) and is still stuck where it was 20 years ago, with stock replies that say absolutely nothing and makes no attempts at engaging the people.
If this situation continues, it will implode. Fortunately, it's not the KTM's problem and so he's just going to climb back into his hole and mind his own business until his next bout of verbal diahoerra. :-)

Comments (61)
It is possible that both "camps" are arguing about two differnt things. Wang is talking about foreigners and subsidies, Aaron and Bart are talking about university admissions. Therefore in such a situation it is difficult to find a common ground; if both sides want to in the first place.
Posted by Ned Stark | June 12, 2007 11:41 PM
KTM, great piece of work you have here.
I especially like this paragraph,
"What this means is that if you have a student with 4 A's, 2 'S' Paper Distinctions, A1 in GP and a lousy grade for Project Work, he will have a lower score than a student who only took three A Level subjects and scored all A's and who got A1's in GP and Project Work."
IF qualities like compassion, charisma, leadership, engaging personality, creativity can be measured by paper excellence, soon someone will come up with a formula to measure the human soul. My opinion is paper qualifications just gives an "indication" of a person's intelligence / dilligence.
Also, let's not kid ourselves, there's a proven strategy to score at A-levels, even in General Paper. Otherwise, why do we have students buying up 10-year series like mad???
I didn't read the forum letters in detail but I just want to point out one other thing - some courses require aptitude tests before considering admissions (e.g. Law , Architecture and Medicine, to name a few I know of). Excellent paper qualifications just gives you a chance to try at the aptitude tests. That's it. I'm inclined to think these parents who are complaining, probably in their need to sensationalize their case, fail to mention that possibly their kids could only demonstrate they have good grades and nothing more.
Posted by Hermes | June 13, 2007 2:27 AM
Some have claimed that it is harder to get into a local university. That's absolutely bogus. The university enrolment per cohort has been climbing steadily from 20 percent to something like 23 percent today (with the building of SMU) and it's not stopping here. The Government has apparently promised that the number will eventually reach 25 percent per cohort.
Does this necessarily tell us about whether it is harder to get a place?
In terms of percentage per cohort (the whole group of people who were in Primary 1 the same year as you, I suppose), the figures are definitely increasing.
However, is it possible that there are more people going to JCs (after all, there are more JCs than before) but a lower percentage of each graduating JC batch getting a place? If we have figures for this, it will perhaps be clearer whether 'A' Levels graduates find it harder than before to get a place.
In a word, if 90% (random example) of 'A' Levels graduates got places in the local universities in 1997 (ignoring those who go to overseas universities), but only 85% (random example) of 'A' Levels graduates get places in the local unis in 2007, maybe admissions have become more difficult.
Posted by Molly | June 13, 2007 2:40 AM
Ned Stark & Hermes,
Thanks for your comments.
Molly,
Does this necessarily tell us about whether it is harder to get a place?
Yes. It really shouldn't be all about the people who choose to take 'A' Levels should it? Tax payers include those whose kids go to poly as well.
In any case, you have realize that there is a trend in recent years where there are actually more of the better 'O' Level students choosing to take the poly route instead of the 'A' Level one. Even if the admission rate for the 'A' Level students is lower, is it really surprising since there are more better poly students and they should (rightfully) be taking up more places?
Whether it's getting to university through the 'A' Level route or through the poly route, it really shouldn't matter, should it? In any case, the fellas who choose to take the 'A' Levels would have qualified for the polys and could have in theory chosen that route too (though the converse is often not true).
If you are right to say that it's harder for 'A' Level students to get a place, then it must be true also that it is (relatively) easier to get to university through the poly route, so who ask them to choose 'A' Levels and not poly?
Then again, suppose there's no change in the poly part and it's "harder" because there are more 'A' Level students because there are more places. Having more places makes the extra students smarter and therefore more deserving of a place in the university?
Posted by The Kway Teow Man | June 13, 2007 3:06 AM
No, I'm not saying that it's harder. I'm only wondering if there are other figures to look at before we can make that conclusion.
Of course tax payers include everyone. But not everyone who goes to a poly has the intention of going to the university whereas most people going to a JC have such an intention. I didn't mention the poly people because it was difficult to put in so many factors. It could be that, compared to the past, there are now even more people going to either JCs and polys, making the population "eligible" (but not guaranteed, of course) for a uni place greater than before. And if the increase (if any) in "eligible" population "exceeded" the increase from 20% to 23%, then the competition is stiffer and it could indeed be more difficult than before to get a place.
This, though, has little (if any) to do with how smart or deserving the students are. By "difficulty," I thought it was largely a matter of how competitive it was. When it comes to student caliber... it could be another matter altogether. Stiffer competition could have made the average caliber of students better or worse (if students have, more than ever, become mere exam-taking machines).
It could really have been easier to get a place than it was before. The increase from 20% to 23% says something. But I would be more careful about coming to a conclusion just based on this.
Posted by Molly | June 13, 2007 3:50 AM
Personally, I think the A-levels is a horrible way of determining if a person can "make it" at university level. I had a terrible experience in JC and did badly in my A-levels. I suppose I was lucky that competition into NUS was not so stiff then. Still, I don't see much of an alternative. There is the IB, which I prefer, but I doubt the system is going to be overhauled.
I think the question is whether university places are a basic good or a privilege. If it is a basic good, then Singaporeans who meet the cut off points should have a university place waiting for them. If it is a privilege, then only the top x% will have university places. It wouldn't matter if 90 out of 100 students have perfect A-level grades, only the top x% will get in. How to differentiate, I have no idea.
I don't believe having foreigners necessarily deprives locals of places in the university. What I am curious about is this 20% figure. Is it a quota, that is we do not accept any more than this number of foreign students? Or is it a target in which we take in the top whatever-number-20%-translates-into of foreign students to fill up the spaces?
Anyway, what I think is needed is a change in mentality. We are so used to the traditional route - pri -> sec -> jc/poly -> uni -> success (?) that when we cannot complete the journey within the appropriate timespan, we get upset. But success in life doesn't become impossible because you fail at following the traditional route. Maybe you have to work a few years before embarking on a university degree. Maybe going to a polytechnic after the A-levels would be a better route for you. There are so many choices in life but I feel people are so blinded by the society-approved route that it is very frightening when they cannot continue on it. Then again, society does like to discriminate against those who don't take up the traditional route.
Posted by Piper | June 13, 2007 8:20 AM
"People nowadays seem to like to open their gaps without getting their facts straight. Even when "not following a matter closely" also got things to say."
"First, we have to understand the market rate. Do people know how many students are getting at least 3 and 4 A's in each cohort? The KTM doesn't have the numbers exactly, but it's probably more than a thousand."
Pot calling the kettle black eh ;)
Posted by amatu | June 13, 2007 8:57 AM
From an economics point of view, a university should match the demands of a skilled workforce with a supply a students capable of completing the course. This is a matter of allocating resources effeciently. For every student with the potential to graduate with a degree but is not given an opportunity to do so, this opportunity cost is paid.
Furthermore if the places go to foreign students at the expense of capable Singaporean citizens, the additonal costs of subsidising the foreign students' fees is paid. This is regardless if the foreign student stays to complete his or her bond. Taxpayer's money still goes towards paying for the foreigner's sch fees.
So the important question is: ARE THERE SINGAPOREANS WHO ARE CAPABLE OF COMPLETING A DEGREE DEPRIVED OF A CHANCE TO DO SO?
Besides, i find it amazing that some singaporeans go to the extent of suggesting that having more singapore degree holders would devalue his degree.
What are the honours awards for? How about the degrees held by the foreigners?
Not to say that i'm xenophobic, but some people really can't think well. No wonder kena screwed by ur masters and still none the wiser.
Posted by useurblain | June 13, 2007 9:08 AM
Just wanted to point out one point which may not been covered. When we look at the question of "Is it harder to get into university now?", there's 2 ways of looking at the problem.
The first way is by percentages of cohort, which is what KTM has done in this post. So as he has said, because the % of cohort going into university has increased compared to the past, therefore it is easier to get into uni than before.
However, there's another way of looking at it imo, and that is by the entry requirements. If for example, ABD could get one a place in the past, but now it cannot, then isn't also right to say that it actually is harder to get into university? Of course a key assumption is that the standard of the A levels is the same throughout the years.
Posted by Jolly Jester | June 13, 2007 10:55 AM
Molly,
Actually hor, why does it really matter if it's easier or harder to get into the local universities. What really matters is whether or not we are doing well enough to ensure that no citizen who is capable of completely a decent university education is denied a place period. Simple as that.
What we need to be realistic about is:
(1) No matter how we draw the line, there will be people who *just barely* fall on the wrong side and they will not be happy.
(2) There will always be deserving people who fail to make the grade and undeserving ones who get admitted, but will eventually flunk out.
Piper,
Personally, I think the A-levels is a horrible way of determining if a person can "make it" at university level ... Still, I don't see much of an alternative.
You're probably right, but anyone got also as you say, we got any better alternatives meh? SAT doesn't quite cut it either.
I think the question is whether university places are a basic good or a privilege. If it is a basic good, then Singaporeans who meet the cut off points should have a university place waiting for them.
Personally, the KTM thinks it's a basic good, as in anyone who has the capacity to do reasonably well and by reasonably well, get at least a B/C average should have a chance at a university education. If a fella is going to be getting all D's and ta paoing every semester then there's probably a need to draw a line.
Unfortunately, the KTM disagrees with you about this cut off point business -- fundamentally because as you say, the goodness of the A-Levels as a means to measure aptitude for university is questionable (at least at the boundaries). There are already students who make the so-called cutoff's and yet eventually flunk out, so we know for a fact that we're approaching the limits of how far we can go (or perhaps not?).
There is a reason why the university participation rate hovers around 25% globally (if the KTM's impression is correct, cannot seem to find the numbers online for some strange reason) and that is because there is a certain standard that is required of universities and not everyone is cut out to study. In the US, they also have Community Colleges, that are somewhat on par with our polys. They give out associate degrees instead of degrees. Anyone asked why they don't give out degrees instead?
What I am curious about is this 20% figure. Is it a quota, that is we do not accept any more than this number of foreign students?
Let's be realistic here. Our local universities are not so world-class that people are clamouring to come. Another issue is the catchment: the students that we are targetting are from relatively poorer countries like China, India and Vietnam.
Let's ask ourselves a simple question: what types of students do we want? We want the stupid and rich (and can afford to pay) ones or whether we want the smart ones? Let's get real: suppose you have some rich and smart ones, they want to come to Singapore ah? So boh pian, only left with the smart but poor (and cannot afford to come) types. These types you dun give them scholarship, they can come huh?
Therefore, by logical deduction, the 20% must be some sort of a target instead of a quota. With scholarships for these foreign students, it is unlikely that we can achieve 20% foreign students. The national universities have a mission and it's not to take in stupid and rich foreigners just to make money.
amatu:
Pot calling the kettle black eh ;)
Happens all the time doesn't it? :-P
But in any case, don't have to try to be too smart. Some facts are not easily available. Do you know what is the total number of students with at least 3 A's? Of course, the KTM could have called up all the JCs, asked them and added up, but the KTM is too lazy lah. Some numbers you also dun need to know exactly 'cos they are only needed for back-of-the-envelope calculations.
useurblain,
From an economics point of view, a university should match the demands of a skilled workforce with a supply a students capable of completing the course. This is a matter of allocating resources efficiently. For every student with the potential to graduate with a degree but is not given an opportunity to do so, this opportunity cost is paid.
This is a motherhood statement that no one in his right mind can disagree with. :-)
Furthermore if the places go to foreign students at the expense of capable Singaporean citizens, the additional costs of subsidising the foreign students' fees is paid. This is regardless if the foreign student stays to complete his or her bond. Taxpayer's money still goes towards paying for the foreigner's sch fees.
Do remember that the tax payers in Singapore are not only the citizens. If the total contribute to tax income of the foreigners in Singapore exceeds 20% (which is not unlikely), then the Singaporeans tax payers really have very little case to whine.
So the important question is: ARE THERE SINGAPOREANS WHO ARE CAPABLE OF COMPLETING A DEGREE DEPRIVED OF A CHANCE TO DO SO?
The answer is yes and there will always be some no matter what we do. The question is: HOW MANY, and what margins of error can we tolerate? Zero is not an acceptable answer by a long shot.
The typical example that people will cite is that there are these Singaporeans who are "forced" to go overseas and who eventually do well. Of course there will be some (because using the A-Levels to allocate university places is inherently imperfect) and of course they will be upset.
Besides, i find it amazing that some singaporeans go to the extent of suggesting that having more singapore degree holders would devalue his degree
What are the honours awards for?.
Agree with you that having more degree holders will not necessary devalue the degree. However, if you will use your blain, you will realize what these Singaporeans are really saying. Perhaps the KTM can paraphrase for you: if the increase in enrolment results in falling standards and the universities are forced to lower standards in order to pass the students, it will impinge on the reputation of the universities and the previous graduates of the schools will "suffer loss". You are right that the class of honours can help to ameilorate the fallout and "maintain standards". However, there is some glam associated with being identified with a top school and a top school is not one that churns out loads of Third Class graduates.
Not to say that i'm xenophobic, but some people really can't think well.
If the KTM were you, he wouldn't feel too bad about not being able to think well. Seriously, it's not your fault. :-)
Jolly Jester,
Of course a key assumption is that the standard of the A levels is the same throughout the years.
How much faith do you have in this assumption? How many times has the syllabus been changed to "teach less, learn more" over the past 20 years?
If you look at the A-Level results of the top students, you will find SIGNIFICANT improvements in the results. Those in the upper half of the cohort are getting more A's all round. Hands up those who believe that the students today are significantly smarter than those 20 years ago.
The proposition of having some so-called objective grades for entry into the various faculties is untenable for two reasons:
(1) Standards have not been consistent, at least not with the introduction of dunno what Project Work, cutting syllabus, etc. But that's not a *real* problem 'cos at the end of the day, it's equal misery for the entire cohort.
(2) What the A-Levels are good for (barely) is for allocation of university places. Turns out that Singaporeans are like lemmings and demand for the various courses flutuate WILDLY.
About a decade ago, Computer Science was red hot due to the dot com boom, then it crashed and Life Sciences took over and Computer Science become the dumping ground. How long is Life Sciences going to last before it goes out of fashion? Dunno, but sure to happen. There are no jobs you know. Dunno why the lemmings still want to do it. :-)
Also, while some may claim that A,B,D could get into some faculty in the past and now cannot, it has therefore gotten harder, they are missing the big picture. Given the increase in enrolment, there will exist those faculties which have a lower bar. E.g. about a decade ago, would probably have been impossible to get into CS without some A's. Now? Probably a smattering of B's and C's is more than sufficient. Many people are blinkered and only want to see what they want to see.
Posted by The Kway Teow Man | June 13, 2007 1:52 PM
Ah, people are sad despite the 'facts' again! Maybe we should ask again why people are sad and not happy? KTM, we should look at the super macro picture!
My guess is the economic options of those without a degree are getting fewer and fewer, and the increase of percentage of cohort is not fast enough to compensate for this decrease in options, leaving a larger percentage of each cohort with fewer economic options? I dunno.
If my guess is correct, the solution is well, 1) increasing the number of places to locals or 2) increasing the number of opportunities for the un-degreed. Option 1 looks easier, and might have other payoffs, like maybe a bigger local talent pool in the long term?
Regardless of whether my guess is correct or not, it seems to me that it is a waste of human talent if those who could do well in university are *not* in university. I'm sure many of those foreign students could have gone to university if they did not come to NUS/NTU, whereas many locals who could have gotten those places, would not.
Anyway, I find it very funny that people comprain about grade inflation (thus cannot compare) and then on the other hand claim that foreign students entry grades are better so they should enter. Hello, if you say you cannot compare two different batches of students from the same system, but can compare between foreign students and locals paper-wise from completely alien systems?! I'm sure the foreign students are good on their own merits, but please lah, I'm sure there are more ways to suan local students that don't require an inconsistent worldview.
PS The people at the bottom will always struggle, no matter how absolutely good/bad they are in our universities, because our grades are on a curve. If you believe foreign students are lean, mean academic machines, of course the bottom people will struggle less if you remove them and let the new, lousier students than the the strugglers in. OTOH, if you believe foreign students are normal people, and that beyond a certain point, A Levels can't distinguish between candidates, like I do, the people at the bottom will forever struggle regardless of foreign students.
Posted by RSE | June 13, 2007 2:31 PM
My guess is the economic options of those without a degree are getting fewer and fewer, and the increase of percentage of cohort is not fast enough to compensate for this decrease in options, leaving a larger percentage of each cohort with fewer economic options? I dunno.
(1) Fact: the percentage of each cohort getting a degree is increasing, not decreasing.
(2) Dunno, but will pretend it's true: The economic options of those without a degree are getting fewer and fewer
(3) Conclusion from (1) and (2): A decreasing percentage of each cohort is enjoying fewer economic options.
The talk about compensation is irrelevant: having an extra person having more economic options because he has a degree does not compensate for there being another person having less options because he does not have a degree. (Analogy: Your being rich does not compensate for me being poor.)
If my guess is correct, the solution is well, 1) increasing the number of places to locals or 2) increasing the number of opportunities for the un-degreed. Option 1 looks easier, and might have other payoffs, like maybe a bigger local talent pool in the long term?
Why would increasing the number of university places to locals increase the local talent pool? Can the university actually do such things? Perhaps you mean increasing the % of the talent pool that has a degree.
In any case, there is an ambiguity in the direction of causation. Suppose it is true that there is a positive correlation between having a degree and having more economic opportunities. It doesn't follow from this that it's the degree that causes the having of more opportunities. It might just as well be the case that some other factor is the cause of both, e.g., it tends to be the hardworking, or smart, or rich, or well connected, whatever, etc., who will get the degree, and also the same who will have more economic options. The possession of the degree is a signal, not a cause. If the possession of the degree is not the real cause, then increasing number of places (or just plain giving out more degrees) won't make any difference.
Posted by Blah Blah | June 13, 2007 2:58 PM
Molly:
'It could be that, compared to the past, there are now even more people going to either JCs and polys, making the population "eligible" (but not guaranteed, of course) for a uni place greater than before. And if the increase (if any) in "eligible" population "exceeded" the increase from 20% to 23%, then the competition is stiffer and it could indeed be more difficult than before to get a place.'
Holistically speaking, I think we nevertheless have to concede that if indeed the rate has gone up to 23%, then an average singaporean is more likely to be able to make it to a local university today than before. 23%>20%, so a randomly picked youth today is more likely to have made it/be able to make it than before.
When you point out that the 'eligible population' has increased, I think what this really means is that more people are being 'directly rejected' by local universities, as opposed to being 'indirectly rejected' by local universities by not even having qualified for 'pre-U' in the form of JCs and polys, and therefore not even trying.
So your point could really mean that while more local students make it to JCs and Polys these days, thereby raising their expectations and hopes (and therefore possible subsequent disappointments)of making it to local Us, qualifying for JCs and Polys have simply become less of a guarantee that one will make it to a local U these days. This simply means that it is less likely than an average JC/Poly student will make it to university these days. However, holistically, it nevertheless remains the case that the average singaporean is more likely (23>20) to make it to local Us than before. All it simply means is that JCs/Polys have become less of a 'guarantee' or 'automatic route'.
Notice that I use the words 'more likely' rather than 'easier'. Hypothetically, it could of course be the case that students on the whole are smarter/given more opportunities/work harder/less financially burdened at a young age than before, and that therefore compared to the past, an average student today has to work harder/put in more effort in order to make it into that top 23% than the average student in the past, where conditions were less competitive, had to work in order to qualify to be in that top 20% or less. It could be that 20 years ago, 60 to 70% of students were not even bothering trying. This change of course reflects the evolution of conditions, standards and expectations in a society that has rapidly advanced through the years. One could therefore perhaps argue that given the conditions, standards, expectations and perhaps even the needs (skilled labour) of a society at this stage of development, a greater percentage of each cohort should be accepted in local Us than the current 23%.
As for whether it is 'easier' to make it to a local U these days, I suppose it depends on how one defines and measures easiness. If you define easiness by 'probability', than yes, it is indeed easier for the average singaporean these days, since it is more probable that he/she will be part of 23% than 20% or less. If you define easiness by how much work and effort one needs to put in or stress one needs to go through, then the answer is not so clear, and may in fact even be the other way round.
Luddite
Posted by Luddite | June 13, 2007 2:59 PM
Blah blah:
(1) Fact: the percentage of each cohort getting a degree is increasing, not decreasing.
(2) Dunno, but will pretend it's true: The economic options of those without a degree are getting fewer and fewer
(3) Conclusion from (1) and (2): A decreasing percentage of each cohort is enjoying fewer economic options.
1) Fact: Even if it is increasing, has it increased sufficiently? Compare: % of graduates in other developed countries with Singapore.
2) Singapore was a manufacturing based economy. It now pretends to be a knowledge-based economy.
3) Your conclusion does not necessarily hold unless the rate of decreasing options are below the rate of increase in places.
Strictly speaking, compensation does not matter to the short-changed individual. It matters to the system as a whole. Since points 1,2,3 relate to the system, and not to individuals (Hint: the only percentages that apply to a sample of one is 0% and 100%), thus, your point is irrelevant.
In any case, there is an ambiguity in the direction of causation. Suppose it is true that there is a positive correlation between having a degree and having more economic opportunities. It doesn't follow from this that it's the degree that causes the having of more opportunities. It might just as well be the case that some other factor is the cause of both, e.g., it tends to be the hardworking, or smart, or rich, or well connected, whatever, etc., who will get the degree, and also the same who will have more economic options. The possession of the degree is a signal, not a cause. If the possession of the degree is not the real cause, then increasing number of places (or just plain giving out more degrees) won't make any difference.
While, I do not disagree that a degree is a signifier, but the real issue here is university education.
If an education does not add economic options or develop individual talent but instead acts only as a signifier of talent, then we should scrap university education altogether and forget this issue altogether.
Posted by RSE | June 13, 2007 5:07 PM
the people at the bottom will forever struggle regardless of foreign students
for some reason my gut tells me that these are the very people making a huge fuss on Mr Wang's blog. the things they write are an indication of the quality of their minds, and from what I can see, even if all foreigners are expelled from Singapore, they would still be struggling at the bottom on their bottoms.
Posted by Han | June 13, 2007 5:33 PM
RSE,
Maybe we should ask again why people are sad and not happy?
Eh, you from which jungle huh? Since when are people ever happy and contented? :-)
My guess is the economic options of those without a degree are getting fewer and fewer, and the increase of percentage of cohort is not fast enough to compensate for this decrease in options, leaving a larger percentage of each cohort with fewer economic options? I dunno.
You are right and there's a name for this thing you've described. It's called "globalization". That's a political problem that the Government needs to deal with, but to conflate the this issue with the problem of university admissions is a slippery slope. For one, people don't get smarter just by being squeezed by globalization.
Two, the thinking that one will have better opportunities simply because of a degree is flawed as Blah Blah has explained. How often do you think Third Class Honours students get called up for interviews, compared to their First Class and 2nd Upper counterparts?
If my guess is correct, the solution is well, 1) increasing the number of places to locals or 2) increasing the number of opportunities for the un-degreed. Option 1 looks easier, and might have other payoffs, like maybe a bigger local talent pool in the long term?
The KTM believes that your guess is off-mark. Seriously lah, do you think we don't have enough money to pay for more university graduates? The Government is more kuncheong about solving the globalization problem than you, and if a cheap and dirty way of solving the problem exists, i.e. by throwing money at the problem and increasing the number of university places, it wouldn't go and do huh? :-P
The question here is the definition of talent. Singaporeans tend to be myopic and define talent by the piece of paper. That's the problem.
it seems to me that it is a waste of human talent if those who could do well in university are *not* in university.
This statement is ABSOLUTELY true. You have prove that there are A LOT of students who can do well and who are not given the chance. What we do have are a lot of parents who are claiming that their kids can do well and are not given the chance -- that is true. NUS and NTU should just do an experiment: increase the intake and see how many more can survive the first two years and we can talk. :-P
I'm sure many of those foreign students could have gone to university if they did not come to NUS/NTU, whereas many locals who could have gotten those places, would not.
Of course, if the assumption that we're importing smart foreign students is correct. If the foreign students that we are importing CANNOT get into other universities, then they want, we also dowan. A bit duh right?
Anyway, I find it very funny that people comprain about grade inflation (thus cannot compare) and then on the other hand claim that foreign students entry grades are better so they should enter.
There is no confusion if you think through this carefully. Basically, the foreigners are NOT compared to the locals at admission (except for those who have done their 'A' Levels who are small in number compared to the direct imports). It's impossible what. The KTM's example of foreigner with 3 A's is for thought experiment only. When people say that the foreigners are better, what do they mean? Simply that the performance of these students in university (after they get in) are better on average. People just go and count how many of our locals have been topping the Science and Engineering faculties at NUS and NTU over the past 10 years.
It is not that the locals are stupid. It is just that our liberal scholarship policies have led to the hollowing out of talent at the local universities. Many (most?) of our local scholars can most definitely hold their ground if they went to the local universities.
Hello, if you say you cannot compare two different batches of students from the same system, but can compare between foreign students and locals paper-wise from completely alien systems?! I'm sure the foreign students are good on their own merits, but please lah, I'm sure there are more ways to suan local students that don't require an inconsistent worldview.
As the KTM stated, the KTM's view is that education is a public good that should be accessible to all who have the capacity to enjoy it. It would be terrible for us to deny any "eligible" local student of an education but because the foreign students are admitted separately, there is no question of the foreign students are taking up the place of the locals. Hold that thought.
Before we continue, we have to understand that there are two different complaints floating around that tend to be conflated. One, complaints that CANNOT get into university at all; and two, cannot get into course of choice.
While the focus is on the former complaint, it is instructive to address the latter briefly. At the end of the day, there are capacity limits on the various courses. If everyone wants to do Medicine, then somebody will have to get the place and somebody will have be to told no. How to decide is an art that nobody can perfect.
Some people are not happy that Project Work is included in the criteria (because their kids did poorly). But people forget that there are people who are happy (because their kids did well in Project Work) and are not saying anything. Make so much noise for what?
The KTM's view: this whole UAS thing is really bogus. Look at the US, how do they decide who to admit? Shouldn't the universities being the fellas who actually have to deal with the students at the end of the day know better about how to choose students who are equipped to deal with university studies? Also dunno why MOE must go and impose these dunno what rules.
But on second thoughts, MOE is not being stupid either -- because it turns out that Singaporeans take comfort in rules. They LIKE to know how the scores are counted and they like the certainty. They want to know that if their kid scores X points, the kid will get a place. They hate the ambiguity where their kid with 4 A's can be denied a place, while the neighbour's kid with 3 A's will be given a place. They will cry foul and no meritocracy.
So how? What's MOE going to do? :-) My view: leave it to the universities lah. Central Government doesn't always know best. Also, can taichi away some responsibility what. Let the universities take the flak on the selection loh.
PS The people at the bottom will always struggle, no matter how absolutely good/bad they are in our universities, because our grades are on a curve.
This is when you need to understand one thing: the university lecturers teach the same thing year in, year out. The standards are quite consistent 'cos there can only be so much creativity.
Your impression seems to be one where people should just impose a curve on the population of students, but no dear, go and talk to the lecturers. What's happening is that the bottom of the barrel has only be getting lower over the years and most of them are the locals. There's a limit to how low the bar can go without compromising academic standards.
While in your naive view, it's all about grades, it's not. If a student cannot master the fundamentals of lessons being taught in the early years, it would be a traversity to pass the student and make him/her someone else's problem when he/she goes on to take higher level classes.
People like to think that they are invincible and can do all things with hard work. Most of the people who are posting on this forum and reading these blogs are highly educated and to them university education is no big deal. The world is bigger than them. The realities on the ground can be quite ugly.
If you believe foreign students are lean, mean academic machines, of course the bottom people will struggle less if you remove them and let the new, lousier students than the the strugglers in. OTOH, if you believe foreign students are normal people, and that beyond a certain point, A Levels can't distinguish between candidates, like I do, the people at the bottom will forever struggle regardless of foreign students.
Foreign students are not part of the equation. People just like to blame their own failures on others. :-P
At the end of the day, what people want is simply: dun pay for the foreigners and give that 20% of the places to locals instead. What's the consequence? Lowering of standards of the students overall -- and very likely many of these extra 20% will end up flunking out and getting Third Class Honours (but the KTM admits that he is speculating). Fat lot of good that will do to making the universities "Boston of the East". :-)
Of course there will be parents who don't really care and still want this because their children are involved and will benefit. Hasn't it always been every man for himself? :-P Fair enough. KTM's view: let's try and see loh. Just be prepared to flunk an extra 20% of the cohort, if there is a need to do so if people cannot make the grade.
This is a random point: the funding model for the universities is actually not incentive-compatible in the KTM's view. Universities are currently funded on the basis of how many graduates they produce. Economically quite sound since universities is the producer of manpower and Government is the "consumer" of manpower. Why should Government pay for students who don't that the universities do not produce (i.e. drop out)?
But one has to understand the budgetary pressures on the universities to thereby graduate students. One can claim that the universities should go and balance maintaining standards and getting the dough, but is this the right way to go?
If an education does not add economic options or develop individual talent but instead acts only as a signifier of talent, then we should scrap university education altogether and forget this issue altogether.
An education will add economic options to those who have the capacity to absorb it. There is a limit to how much different individuals can study and how far they can go. For those who cannot, it's not the end of the road either lah. As Piper says, a change of mindset is probably what's needed. Their talents could just lie elsewhere and going to university is both a suffering and a waste of time.
Blah Blah, Luddite & Han,
Thanks for your comments.
Posted by The Kway Teow Man | June 13, 2007 5:37 PM
I get the distinct feeling in this discussion that we are assuming,
- If 20% quota is reserved for foreigners, 80% is left for locals? (am I mistaken?)
When I was studying in Singapore (yes, foreign-type, stop the hate, please), it used to be that competition for a place in University for citizens and foreigners was completely separate. The 20% quota just referred to the foreigners pool and we were competing amongst ourselves.
20% doesn't mean "20% of the total number of admissions".
The way I understood it was,
- you had 1000 foreigners applying and 1000 citizens applying for university
- only 200 of the foreigners were going to get in. 800 of the foreigners were not
- it could be that 900 of the citizens were getting in while 100 were not. But this percentage was definitely higher compared to the 20% for foreigners.
- nobody would tell you the exact make-up of the total number of admissions because I -think- this was entirely up to the discretion of the University in question. In other words, they could adjust the the total intake each year depending on the number of applicants because let's face it, school fees from undergraduates was a form of revenue for the University.
- so, I always thought Singaporeans were not getting the raw end of the deal. I didn't know the quota for citizens then because it really wasn't any of my business.
So, if the above still holds true, then why are people attacking foreign-types online, -again-? I mean, you are really crowded out by Singaporeans capable of raising the university admission requirements for Singaporeans. There is also the possibility that maybe "citizens" in the above example doesn't include PR, I don't really know. If it doesn't include PR, then I just think the competition for the foreigners pool is stiffer, isn't it?
In the case of foreign students, I think we need to realize there are generally, 2 groups of them. One group is those who get a scholarship from MOE (or other organizations) to study in Singapore and the other is those who pay for their own education.
For the first group, whether or not they still have the scholarship depends on a yearly evaluation that consists primarily how well they do in school (i.e grades average). If they fall below the stipulated average persistently - maybe 1-3 years? Not sure, it's different, depending on the sponsor - they will need to pack up and go home or in some cases, pay back a portion of the scholarship (because it's taxpayer money, duh?). So, isn't it logical for these students to push themselves very hard to excel? On top of that, the scholarship is not bond-free. I think they serve more than 3-year bond in some cases. These students have a tendency to drive themselves -harder- than normal students (study during vacations, breaks etc) but can you blame them?
For the second group, they pay for their education and the education fees are something like 3-4 times what a Singaporean would pay. E.g. Engineering could cost SGD 6000 per year for a citizen, while it would cost SGD 20,000 per year for a foreigner. A few years ago, the Singapore dollar was already very strong. Case in point, SGD to RM exchange rate was 1:1.5. So in ringgit terms for our Malaysian students, 20k x 1.5 = RM 30,000 per year. A four year course would mean RM 120,000 and that's just school fees alone. Accomodations, meals, transport, books, notes, exam fees and other miscellaneous fees were not factored in yet. How much is RM 120,000 to a Malaysian? Well, you can buy a condominium (no loan, no mortgage), after 4 years and it's bigger than a 5-room flat.
Fortunately, for this group of students, the Singapore government is kind enough to reduce the school fees to the equivalence of what a Singaporean would pay, on the condition that, after these students graduate, they work in Singapore for 3-years to contribute to the workforce (pay back taxpayer money!). But, they still have to fork out SGD 6000 per year, so it's not like it's a free ride as most would seem to think ...
And you ask, why would this group of students still want to come to Singapore to study if they come from relatively well-to-do families?
My personal experience is I really cannot compete with all the Malaysian non-muslims (Chinese, Indians etc) in the whole of Malaysia for a 10% place in my country's university. 10% as in 10% of the total cohort. I study and work harder than my Muslim neighbour but I know my neighbour is going to get into coveted spots like dentistry, pharmacy, law with just B and C average while I need to get a minimum A average.
On top of that, I'm subjected to a Malay General Paper (Malay is not my mother tongue) where the questions in this paper are specially written to trick non-native Malay speaking students. You are given paragraphs that have very obscure words that even a native speaker don't normally use or are phrased in a non-standard form that unless you are previously exposed to it from a Malay friend, you are going to fail miserably.
Ironically, my parents pay their taxes dutifully every year and the amount paid is more than my Muslim neighbour even though our total family income is compatible.
Posted by Hermes | June 13, 2007 10:43 PM
Hermes,
I get the distinct feeling in this discussion that we are assuming,
- If 20% quota is reserved for foreigners, 80% is left for locals? (am I mistaken?)
I think the 20% is more like a target than a quota. My understanding is that the number of places allocated for locals and foreigners are separate.
Singaporeans seem to think that they should compete on par with the foreign students. Structurally, it's hard to compare locals and (direct import) foreign students, but based on the subsquent performance in university (and I'm sure you have seen for yourself) the foreign students do perform better on average and the difference can be quite significant. If we can figure out how to compare the two groups fairly at admission and have them compete on equal terms, locals are likely to be worse off.
But that's not the point. The foreign students have a function -- and that's to prop up the standards of the local universities.
The point is to figure out which of the locals can complete their university education meaningfully and give them all an education. It turns out that everyone thinks that their kid is capable and deserving -- but is that a surprise?
There are some fellas who seem to claim that all the foreigners are lousy. Talk about Singaporeans being overly full of themselves. :-) How many of these fellas topped their respective Departments?
In any case, the selection process for the foreign students is not perfect and the locals are not idiots either. If every single local is worse than ALL the foreign students, then Singapore is really a basket case and got no hope. Fortunately, this is not the case. :-)
So perhaps we have a local student who managed to beat all the foreign students in his Department/Faculty, does it mean that the foreign students are all lousy and that all Singaporean students are better? Did this fella fall on the borderline when he/she applied for university admission? Probably not what, so what does it prove other than "I not stupid"? :-)
The 20% quota just referred to the foreigners pool and we were competing amongst ourselves.
Correct. Most of the foreigners are admitted separately from the locals and the locals compete among themselves.
A minor qualifier is that some of the foreigners who do their 'A'-Levels will compete with the locals in the general admission process since they can be compared somewhat fairly with the locals, but the number of such students is fairly small compared to the direct imports.
Anyhow, don't have to get too sensitive or defensive. Singaporeans are by and large quite accepting of Malaysians. Most of the angst is directed at the foreign students of other nationalities.
Actually, someone should just go and do a statistical study:
First, what is the proportion of students who are flunking out? If the proportion is quite high, then case closed, we are at the limits of what the population can do. If it's not, then perhaps there is a case for increasing enrolment.
Second, do a correlation study of UAS scores with subsequent academic performance. If the correlation is really bad, then better go and change the UAS scoring system.
There is a scientific way to settle this issue.
Posted by The Kway Teow Man | June 13, 2007 11:25 PM
I just read Mr Wang's post and KTM's article (been so busy) on this issue, had a view, and decide to post my first comment on this issue. I hope my extrapolation that many points in these two articles interact is an obvious one.
Mr Wang's argument, I think, starts from at least two assumptions.
1) That the A' Level Standards (substitute poison of choice) over the years are generally the same.
2) Everyone above a particular and rather intuitive A Level Standard deserves a place in a Singaporean University if the person is Singaporean ("deserving Singaporeans")
Assuming that these two assumptions are right, it is not difficult to conclude that with limited resources, a university scheme that has a 'foreign' component with attractive benefits and the like, might affect some "deserving Singaporeans" even if a larger percentage of Singaporeans are attending Universities if universities are not expanding fast enough.
After all, assume that all foreign places are now close and now open only to local students. The "market rate" will drop and more "deserving Singaporeans" will enter university despite the increase number of Singaporeans this cohort + the better standards.
So I think Mr Wang's comments are fair considering his (my extrapolated) assumptions. I have particular sympathy for his (again my extrapolate) second assumption (or sentiment). So I think KTM does too somewhat, and most of the readers. It is the put Singaporeans first somewhat sentiment.
I am also of the opinion that the MOE does somewhat recognize this in their rather recent efforts to boost Uni-education numbers for Singaporeans. In fact, I think MOE does share those above assumptions somewhat or else why bother trying to make more places (unless of course to make Singaporeans happy - but that is another point altogether),
The question posed then is whether the MOE is doing enough. And I think unlike Mr Wang, the gahmen will soon be doing enough but this one is quite a bump because of the dragon babies. But while being generally on the right track is praiseworthy, this episode is not a nice one.
Foreign students are here to 1) become citizens to contribute to our policy of many people, 2) make NUS/NTU a world class university because of point system. More and better qualified foreigners are necessary to make this happen. Universities are also center of influences. Good stuff. Good for public policy. ASEAN scholars might become future leaders. Good for Singapore in so many ways.
Such an incident which causes some to blame foreigners and the government should have been prevented. It brings to bear a policy that is instinctively unpopular with the electorate - even those who do not have children that will one day attend universities. I suspect they (the gahmen) thought SMU,NSW (Asia), and perhaps SIM would have been enough.
Posted by Serendipity | June 14, 2007 1:10 AM
1) You have not addressed the issue of resouces wasted (including opportunity cost of not developing a capable uni applicant)
2)Do all parents of foreign students pay tax in singapore? A quote like "Do remember that the tax payers in Singapore are not only the citizens. If the total contribute to tax income of the foreigners in Singapore exceeds 20% (which is not unlikely), then the Singaporeans tax payers really have very little case to whine." is simply not acceptable.
Firstly that's ur assumption. Secondly, how about students whose parents do not work in sg? How about all the scholarship money/bursaries spent on them instead of similarly able students from sg?
3)"So the important question is: ARE THERE SINGAPOREANS WHO ARE CAPABLE OF COMPLETING A DEGREE DEPRIVED OF A CHANCE TO DO SO?
The answer is yes and there will always be some no matter what we do. The question is: HOW MANY, and what margins of error can we tolerate? Zero is not an acceptable answer by a long shot. "
And why not? It's not like ppl dun have to pay to go to uni. They paid either through taxes as well as the non-subsidised portion of it. Besides if you think that it's a waste of resource to educate the so called "poorer" students, an option for them to pay the full fee in order to go to uni can be implemented.
4) "Perhaps the KTM can paraphrase for you: if the increase in enrolment results in falling standards and the universities are forced to lower standards in order to pass the students, it will impinge on the reputation of the universities and the previous graduates of the schools will "suffer loss". You are right that the class of honours can help to ameilorate the fallout and "maintain standards". However, there is some glam associated with being identified with a top school and a top school is not one that churns out loads of Third Class graduates."
What makes u think that standards will drop to pass the students? U mean the lecturers will pass all the "lousy" students to save their jobs? Careful u might get sued for such "dangerous remarks" :) Glam associated with a top sch? Haha. Assuming lecturers in NUS are impartial and will not "cheat" to save their asses, which u blindly assumed, aren't all students capable of passing their course deserving of their degree? For example a student with Bs for A levels might end up doing better than one with all As.
5)"If the KTM were you, he wouldn't feel too bad about not being able to think well. Seriously, it's not your fault. :-)"
;)
Posted by useurblain | June 14, 2007 10:13 AM
KTM,
How much faith do you have in this assumption? How many times has the syllabus been changed to "teach less, learn more" over the past 20 years?
I think I have quite a bit of faith in that assumption. But its only my opinion lar, no stats etc to back it up lar. Just remembered that usually the very early questions of ten year series (for my era that's like the 80s papers) were usually rather simple questions.
Afterall with the increased amount of time spent studying by the kids nowadays, with much more availability of knowledge, better nutrition (for the brain) etc, it will be quite a disappointment if the younger generation is not as good as the older one in exams right?
I hesitate to use the word 'smarter' though, as Singaporean students have largely evolved (in my opinion) to become specialised exam takers.... but for the purposes of comparing the same A level paper, students now should be much better at it than the students of the past.
Posted by Jolly Jester | June 14, 2007 11:03 AM
KTM + several commenters have touched on the crux of the current 'problem', though they have not named it -- possible grade inflation in the A-levels.
More students have been getting good grades in the A-levels over the past decade. It is likely that some of the improvement is attributable to factors that do not indicate higher competence, e.g. better teaching to the test, reducing of syllabus requirements etc.
In that case, good results become weaker signals. Existing local universities have decided to respond by raising entry requirements to maintain (or even increase) student quality. I do not think they are all that autonomous as to run afoul of MOE on this, so there is at least a tacit approval from the higher ups.
Does that mean that MOE also believes the grade-inflation story?
Another factor is demographics - with future cohorts likely to be smaller because of the past declines in birth rates, perhaps it isn't wise to raise enrollments. The handling of the dragon cohort may not have been the best, but that cohort is one out of twelve.
But the most important factor IMO is the notion that 25% of P1 cohort is the right target to decide how many people go into university. Is that the right number? How do we decide? How did THEY decide?
Posted by Jason | June 14, 2007 11:09 AM
Serendipity,
Thanks for your comments. Let's address your two assumptions in turn:
1) That the A' Level Standards (substitute poison of choice) over the years are generally the same.
On what basis would we come to such a conclusion given the numerous syllabus changes over the years, the phenomenal increase in the number of students scoring straight-A's and the introduction of Project Work? We have faith in MOE that they are so good at calibrating their exams so that a 'B' today is the same as a 'B' 10 years ago?
2) Everyone above a particular and rather intuitive A Level Standard deserves a place in a Singaporean University if the person is Singaporean ("deserving Singaporeans")
Intuitive you say? Good, help me out here:
Is A,B,E better or B,B,B better? B,B,B? Fair enough.
Is A,B,E better or B,B,C better?
B,B,C? Fair enough.
Is A,B,E better or B,C,C better?
A,B,E? Fair enough.
Whoops. Forgot GP. Let's try again:
Is A,B,E,B3 GP better or B,B,B,A1 GP better?
How about A,B,E,A1 GP and B,B,B,B3 GP?
....
Lest the KTM becomes an optician instead of a KTM, hope you get the point. There's nothing at all intuitive about how to rank students with their A-Level results. When we want to decide what is "deserving", there must first be a way to rank the students because there will eventually be a need to draw that line.
The only thing that seems intuitive to the KTM is apparently the argument that "my son/daughter is Singaporean and I pay taxes" and therefore he/she is good enough because we need to put Singaporeans first.
Assuming that these two assumptions are right ... I think Mr Wang's comments are fair considering his (my extrapolated) assumptions.
But if these assumptions are wrong and way off mark, then Mr Wang's comments are _______? (You can fill in the blanks) :-P
this episode is not a nice one.
Er, "not nice" is somewhat of an understatement. :-)
Such an incident which causes some to blame foreigners and the government should have been prevented.
This is a very bad time. Minister salaries are going up. GST is going up. Even cable prices are going up. Globalization is a problem unsolved and people dun see no real prospects in their real incomes. They do however see the rich getting richer because the economy IS DOING WELL. So there's a lot of angst and unhappiness on the ground.
Notwithstanding, this is no excuse for people to go off stirring up xenophobic sentiments and shooting their mouth off without exercising their brains. What you see is simply a reflection of the kind of society we've become and the quality of our people.
The KTM was just thinking a little harder about the apparently OBVIOUS fix of increasing the intake by 20% and giving people the chance to try and see.
Think about what will happen in practice if we increased intake by 20%. What will probably happen is this thing called equal misery: every faculty all increase by 20%. So Medicine intake increases by another 20%. How many of these new students will flunk out? Practically none 'cos Medicine will still be getting the best students. The only reason to control the number of Medicine students is that it's expensive to train them and we only need some number X. If people want to argue that the Government hasn't gotten the number X right, that's not something that the KTM is interested to discuss. At the end of the day, the demand for places in Medicine outstrips supply and the line must be drawn somewhat.
So what will happen if intake increases by 20% for people to try out? Given the present system, the dumping ground faculties will just get stuck with more weak students and most of the students will flunk out there. Makes the problem of course mismatches described earlier even worse. Nasty.
The moral of the story is simply that there is really no easy fix.
useurblain,
1) You have not addressed the issue of resouces wasted (including opportunity cost of not developing a capable uni applicant)
Not sure what you are saying. The KTM has addressed it and said that it is imperative to give everyone willing and capable of obtaining a university education the chance at it.
You have not addressed the issue of resources and time wasted by admitting students who do not have the capacity for a university education and eventually flunk out.
Firstly that's ur assumption. Secondly, how about students whose parents do not work in sg? How about all the scholarship money/bursaries spent on them instead of similarly able students from sg?
The assumption? The Singaporeans who have demanded that the scholarships to the foreign students be scrapped seem to have assumed that they are paying all the taxes and therefore their children should have first right.
That assumption is flawed because there are a million foreigners currently in Singapore and they pay taxes also. Since only 20% of the students are foreigners, the KTM's point is that as long as the foreigners working in Singapore contribute at least 20% to the tax revenues, it can be argued that they are paying for their own kind. You have issues with that?
And why not? It's not like ppl dun have to pay to go to uni. They paid either through taxes as well as the non-subsidised portion of it. Besides if you think that it's a waste of resource to educate the so called "poorer" students, an option for them to pay the full fee in order to go to uni can be implemented.
It's nothing about whether the parents can or cannot pay. The KTM is just a realist. It is simply IMPOSSIBLE to come up with a system that correctly identifies every single person capable of completing a university education. There will always be these unlucky fellas who are really quite bright, but for some obscure reason get straight D's. Or to put it another way, the only way to do it is to let EVERYONE have a go.
What makes u think that standards will drop to pass the students?
Because of the current funding model where MOE pays for each student that the universities graduate.
Assuming lecturers in NUS are impartial and will not "cheat" to save their asses, which u blindly assumed, aren't all students capable of passing their course deserving of their degree?
The KTM would like to agree with you that NUS lecturers are impartial and will not "cheat" to save their asses. Seriously. :-)
The KTM has not assumed anything other than the fact that by increasing enrolment, we are not going to get a significant number of extra geniuses going to the local universities. While the A-Levels are not perfect as a quantifier of merit, it is not completely useless either and there will more likely than not be an increase in the number of weaker students and students who will have a harder time passing their courses.
If you want to assume that there is this magical "requisite grade" for the A-Levels that once a students attains, he/she therefore is guaranteed to be able to do well enough at the university to pass his/her course, the KTM respects your view, but he can tell you honestly, he doesn't buy it. :-P
Jolly Jester,
I think I have quite a bit of faith in that assumption. But its only my opinion lar, no stats etc to back it up lar. Just remembered that usually the very early questions of ten year series (for my era that's like the 80s papers) were usually rather simple questions.
Fair enough. The KTM respects your view, but he will say that he doesn't have much faith in the same at all (but neither does he have the stats to back up his claim). :-)
Afterall with the increased amount of time spent studying by the kids nowadays, with much more availability of knowledge, better nutrition (for the brain) etc, it will be quite a disappointment if the younger generation is not as good as the older one in exams right?
Okay lah, it's not just nutrition. It's also affluence. How many Singaporean kids today have to help out at his/her father's hawker stall at night? And this exam smart thing is for real one. Perfectly possible to do well at the A-Levels without having much of a clue as to what's really going on.
Nevertheless, two points to highlight:
(1) Students getting smarter or not says nothing about the standards of the actual A-Level exams. Given the numerous changes, there is a high likelihood that standards have changed lah.
(2) Due to the very fact that students are doing significantly better due to exam smartness, tuition, whatever, the correlation between how well a student does at A-Levels and how well he/she will do in university is seriously weakened. As useurblain says, it is perfectly possible for a student with Bs for A levels to end up doing better than one with all As, and similarly for one who didn't get admitted to pass a course in university and for one who got admitted to flunk out.
There will always be some error at the margins. The question is: what is the size of the error??
Jason,
But the most important factor IMO is the notion that 25% of P1 cohort is the right target to decide how many people go into university. Is that the right number? How do we decide? How did THEY decide?
Well said. Dunno exactly how they decide lah, but one can venture a guess. First, it's by looking at the corresponding rates for the other countries that are ahead of us in development, since that provides us with an estimate on the limits of human capacity with regards a university education, taking into account that there's likely to be an over-estimate in many countries since their people started whining louder and earlier than our own and their Governments are politically weaker (as in need to pander to the demands of the people more liberally).
Then hor, go and ask the universities, "Ooi, suppose we ask you to increase the intake of by x%, you think how? Based on your experience, the extra students can pass?"
Then, there's probably also an economic element, as in MOE will go and ask MTI or MOM, "Eh, got jobs for these people if they graduate or not?" If we produce a lot of graduates with no jobs waiting for them when they graduate, it's another political problem. Isn't that what's already happening with Life Sciences?
How else would MOE do it? Budget constraints? Unlikely. These fellas are building some sports stadium or something in EVERY school is it not? :-P
Posted by The Kway Teow Man | June 14, 2007 2:13 PM
useurblain:
You have not addressed the issue of resouces wasted (including opportunity cost of not developing a capable uni applicant)
ok, let us first look at your initial assertion.
From an economics point of view, a university should match the demands of a skilled workforce with a supply a students capable of completing the course. This is a matter of allocating resources effeciently. For every student with the potential to graduate with a degree but is not given an opportunity to do so, this opportunity cost is paid.
you state that a university must do 2 things. (1)meet the demands of "a skilled workforce" (2) admit students capable of completing the course
I don't know about you, but the first requirement has no meaning. What do you mean meet the demands of a skilled workforce? If you mean to say that the university must meet the demands of the labour market, then I submit to you that our universities have never been able to fulfil this function because they have been micromanaged by the government according to what the government deems to be required.
You must understand, a centralised decision-making bureaucracy will always face information deficit and time-lag problems. Governments will never be able to anticipate the demands of the market. If it did, the Soviet Union would still be around today, and China would still be communist.
If you mean to say that the university should meet the demands of the government, then it is precisely doing that! The government demands a certain number of foreign students, and the universities comply.
I submit to you that under ANY kind of government intervention with the university system, there will ALWAYS be wastage of resources. But if government intervention is done according to what YOU propose, I argue that the resource wastage will be WORSE.
The reasoning has to do with the second requirement that you state. You state that universities should admit students who have the ability to complete the course. This is eminently reasonable, and as a matter of practicality, there should not be any other type of students that universities admit.
However, I suggest that the answer is to be found not by looking at the top, but at the bottom. You go ask teachers, lecturers and professors at our local universities, who the bottom students are. Those who regularly fail, those who have no idea what their courses are about, those who do not want to do the course that they are in at all, but are merely doing it for the sake of a degree.
I guarantee that almost all of them are native singaporeans, if not all. These people do not deserve a place at uni, or at least, should not be in uni at all because that's not where their strengths are.
I submit to you that there are already too many people in uni who should not even be there. Giving priority to Singaporeans OVER foreigners who can be shown to be more capable would only just increase the numbers of the undeserving.
Posted by Han | June 14, 2007 2:24 PM
Han,
I submit to you that there are already too many people in uni who should not even be there. .
Let's not carry this too far. We need the figures before we can make any statements on whether there are TOO MANY Singaporeans in university today who don't deserve to be there. We know there are some for sure, but they do drop out, so it's not like it's the end of the world -- and to give people at least a chance is not entirely a bad proposition.
Conversely, we also know that there are some fellas who would do well in university but who somehow fail to make it because of the way that the current university places are assigned with the dunno what UAS system and because the A-Levels are, well, questionable in some ways.
Some of the concerns on the ground of individuals denied a place in university even though they may be fully capable of doing well ARE VALID. How the university admission criteria should be tuned is another question entirely. Quite sure no one has the answer and no matter what people do, there will be a margin of error.
The key is to find a balance and to approach the issue in a level-headed way. The problem is that this discussion has degenerated into a xenophobic frenzy (perhaps not here, but elsewhere).
Giving priority to Singaporeans OVER foreigners who can be shown to be more capable would only just increase the numbers of the undeserving
The KTM has no doubts that the bar for locals is already lower than that for the foreigners -- but this doesn't mean that the locals are undeserving either.
Remember that we are not here to be "fair" to the foreign students (but it's not like we should mistreat them either lah). They are here not because we have a love for them, but because they are needed to prop up standards left behind by the vacuum caused by our scholarship policies.
We should also refraining from branding local students as undeserving because some do not do quite as well as their foreigner counterparts.
Ultimately, the KTM's view is: (i) the foreign students have a purpose, so let's leave them alone; and (ii) we need to figure out whether we should have more university places for the locals and this decision should be INDEPENDENT of the foreign students.
The answer to (ii) cannot be a yes simply because of all the cow-pehing. If it's to be a yes, we need have the evidence to support that conclusion. If it's to be a no, then it should be a no loh and we can move on (but matter should be reviewed periodically). :-P
Problem with people is that once worked up into a frenzy, all cannot think straight. :-)
Posted by The Kway Teow Man | June 14, 2007 5:40 PM
Useurblain,
In addition to what Han has stated, all of which I completely agree with, my opinion is that your standard that entry to university for all students with the ability to complete a course is too low a standard.
I am a graduate from NUS and I can tell you that it doesn't take much to pass. In fact, I will go as far as to say that it is quite difficult to fail(this applies only to people who do bother to put in the barest barest minimum). I know of many people who never attended a lecture, did not show the barest hint of interest, invested the minimum effort to produce shoddy work to just get a pass. And pass, they did.
This is not to cast an aspersion on such people and nor am I being elitist by looking down on them. Not everyone is destined to be a university graduate. And in my opinion, to force these people into doing what they are not interested in is what I call 'wasting resources'. Different individuals have different strengths, merits, values and interests. Here in Singapore, at least for many Singaporeans, there is only one sure-fire route to success - which is a university degree.
When I say force, I do not mean physical force. It may be the employment of gentle persuasion, the sideway glance of an elder member of a family when a kid proclaims that he wants to be an actor next time. It may be the showering of praise on someone who has done well for math and science, while in contraast, another kid who has attained equally good grades in the arts is dismissed as 'arts is a soft subject, very easy to do well one!'
Let me give you an example. Somone who might have been a world class musician might have abandoned his passion because of this dogged, single-minded pursuit of the Singaporean receipe of success.
I wonder how many world class writers, artists, singers, actors, Olympic Champions Singapore had sacrificed to the altar of the Singapore Dream just to churn out factories of bankers, accountants, financial advisors and engineers?
This is what I call true wastage. That people have failed to harness their true potential in the mindless pursuit of another person's version and formula of success which was not even their own in the first place?
That's why I concur with Han and KTM. There are actually many many people who really should not be in university. They are just not cut out for it, nor are they even interested in it. To compound the problem by increasing the capacity to include EVERY individual who can complete the degree is just not feasible and is definitely not a solution to reduce any 'wastage of resources'.
A university degree is not the be all and end all and definition of success. Many Singaporeans view it as a stepping stone to greater things, but it shouldn't be. Success is a concept that is bigger than that and should encompass and embrace myriad versions. Many people who have failed to complete university or who never made it to university have made it big, one of the most famous being Steve Jobs. There are also many poly graduates in Singapore who started their own business who ended up being way more successful than many university graduates.
Posted by Shae | June 14, 2007 5:47 PM
My friends, may i direct you all to Molly's words of wisdom. Indeed it can be seen that the paper chase has gotten to many people's heads such that people think not getting a degree is akin to a sentence of death. And if the critical mass thinks this way then it will be this way until such time as people choose to start thinking.
http://mollymeek.livejournal.com/158911.html
Posted by Ned Stark | June 14, 2007 10:42 PM
Just popping out of my cave for a bit...
Might there be some value in giving the student's percentile ranking as part of the A-Level results, especially for those who have an A grade in a subject?
This would add another objective dimension which universities can use to distinguish between candidates.
It would also act as a hedge against grade inflation.
Posted by Speranza Nuova | June 15, 2007 11:21 AM