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Dr. Ong Chit Chung, a military historian and a member of parliament (MP) for the Group Representative Constituency (GRC) of Jurong, has passed away. His passing away is indeed a lost for Singapore. Not only did he take keen interests in the foreign and military affairs of Singapore as a backbencher, he also served faithfully in various committees in parliament. Dr. Ong was the chairperson of the estate committee. His various articles and books on the military history of Singapore llikewise deserve a wide readership among Singaporeans.
Yet Dr Ong's passing away triggers a related political question. Will there be a resulting by-election in Jurong GRC?
The recent past suggests that there would be no by-election in Jurong GRC. In 1999, Choo Wee Khiang, a PAP MP from Jalan Besar GRC, resigned from his seat after pleading guilty in the lower court to a charge filed last December of helping a businessman cheat a finance company of S$830,000 (US$481,159) by issuing false invoices. The Workers' Party, the Singapore Democratic Party, the Singapore's People Party, National Solidarity Party and an academic called for a by election then. "There should be a by-election as the next election is hardly soon. If it were coming soon, one could justify a short wait and use a caretaker MP from the next constituency," Wee Wan-ling, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies told the Straits Times then.
However, the then PM Goh Chok Tong announced that a by-election would not be held because he did not want Singaporeans distracted from efforts to recover from the economic crisis. As a result, the other 3 MPs in Jalan Besar "doubled-up" and took over Choo's duties in the GRC. Just prior to the PM's decision of whether to hold a by election, the Straits Times reported on June 6, 1999 that Chiam See Tong, the then leader of the SPP, argued that the real reason that Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong has to deliberate over a by-election for Jalan Besar GRC is that he fears a repeat of the PAP's 1981 by-election defeat at Anson. The truth is that the memory of Anson is still in his mind," said Mr Chiam, who represents Potong Pasir.
Thus, if we draw upon the last election where the situation for the PAP was more difficult, it would be even more unlikely that there would be a by-election this time round. However, would it not be possible in the coming days that the PAP and the opposition, and by extension Singapore, would benefit from a by election process? This short article moves beyond the constitutional, "fairness" (whether 5 people should do 4 people work etc) and political expediency questions. These questions would likely be addressed in the mainstream and alternative media in the next few days. Rather I wish to explore the potential benefits for all parties if a by-election is held.
The last by election held in Singapore was almost 16 years ago in 1992, where a by-election was held in Marine Parade GRC to renew the PAP ranks. In retrospect, it was an important by-election and it proved to be beneficial for the PAP. For the PAP, the then PM Goh Chok Tong received a strong mandate from the people by winning 72.9% of the votes against a SDP that could mobilize increasing number of human and financial resources then. Teo Chee Hean was first introduced into politics in this fierce fight against the SDP. Today he is one of the most effective and creative ministers, both in policy making and on the ground. As for Singaporeans who hoped for a more thinking and critical curriculum in the late 90s, Minister Teo's appointment benefited them as his stint in the education ministry was more than crucial in reforming the education system away from substantive rote-learning towards a more holistic and diverse education system. The changing context of Teo's policies and the active demands of students and teachers throughout the 1990s made it possible for more routes to educational achievements to be explored then it was possible in the late 80s and early 90s. His Paris Ris GRC has become one of the strongholds of the PAP, and the presence of an election must have helped him to work the ground hereafter. The opposition has not managed to make much of a foothold in Paris Ris GRC, despite a growing number of young professionals in the constituency.
For the opposition, the election introduced Dr. Chee Soon Juan to Singapore politics. For better or for worse, Dr. Chee has gone on to be heavily involved in opposition politics in Singapore. He is the current Secretary-General of the SDP and has written several books on Singapore politics and has called for fundamental reforms in society. In addition, the NSP who contested in the election also solidified the experience of its veterans such as Tan Chee Kien and Ken Sunn, the latter whom is the current deputy President of the party.
Likewise, the PAP could draw upon its 1992 election as a way to renew the ranks in Jurong GRC, paving way for younger Singaporeans to undertake the next lap for the party, especially since the PAP's leaders have repeatedly called for increased renewal of the party. Would it not be possible that another Minister Teo would emerge from this by-election? As its own party leaders too agree, there is nothing like an election to introduce experience in electioneering, understanding the ground and challenging the opposition on issues that hold dear to Singaporeans for the candidates. Would that not benefit Singaporeans if their leaders have more experience in relating to the ground in the by-election process? After all, Barack Obama, the Presidential Candidate for the Democratic Party, recently said, "Don't tell me that words don't matter."
For the opposition, would it not be possible that a dream team could emerge to challenge the PAP through the availability of a by-election? Would a slate of candidates such as Sylvia Lim, Steve Chia, JBJ, and two new and credible faces not give them more experiences in moderating and clarifying their policies towards the people? Would it not be a win-win situation for Singapore if the opposition can take this opportunity to formed a united "all-star" team to contest against the PAP, thus drawing more credible people towards its ranks, thus providing a choice for Singaporeans in future elections?
Finally, the last election was fiery in Singapore, but it was conducted with poise by most members of the opposition and won with 2/3 of the valid votes by the PAP. How then would a by-election be a distraction from economic problems or be a waste of tax-payers' money if we have yet another opportunity to prove that democracy in Singapore works when a by-election can equip its leaders with skills needed to succeed in an increasingly complex society?
Comments (14)
CNA: Dr. Ong Chit Chung dies peacefully at home
"Meanwhile, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said it is for the Prime Minister to decide if there will be a replacement to the position left vacant by the late Dr Ong.
Speaking at a community event on Monday, Mr Tharman said the remaining four MPs would be more than willing to share the workload of the late Dr Ong's constituency."
Hmm... I wonder what PM Lee's decision would be? But by the looks of it, I don't think he will be calling for a by-election...
Posted by LCC | July 14, 2008 10:33 PM
It's obviously not going to happen if the Constitution does not dictate that a by-election is necessary. There is currently a lot of unhappiness on the ground over GST, ERP, MSK, and inflation.
Posted by Kway Teow Man | July 14, 2008 11:57 PM
I doubt that the government will risk a by-election since there are so many unhappiness on the ground. That is, this government has no guts at all. What about the baptism of fire that old MM keeps talking about? If the PAP team is worth every salt, they should call for an election. But PM Lee probably don't have the stomach for that.
Posted by Bernice | July 15, 2008 11:15 AM
Pap is a kiasu party.Do you think they dare to call a by-election ? There are so many issues on hand which the govt can't answer to the people.Might as well forget it.
Posted by tewniaseng | July 15, 2008 11:23 AM
To all,
Thank you for your comments. I somewhat disagree with most of your analysis, from a historical standpoint.
The PAP participated in series of by elections in the 1970s. Don't forget that inflation (consumer prices) were in the double digits (22% in 1974) in the early 1970s (but fell rapidly towards the end of the 1970s), growth was not as good as it was in the 1980s! Particularly in 1979, 7 seats were up for grabs in a time where the strength of the opposition was recovering from the demise of the Barisan Socialis. For the sake of renewal of its ranks, the PAP decided to go to the polls. Was it confident that it will win the election? I'm sure they were - and are they less confident in 2008 since the team in Jurong GRC will likely be led by the education minister?
Also, the by-election process usually brings out the best in the opposition in terms of unity, for those who are skeptical of the opposition's ability to unite. In the 1981 by-election, Chiam See Tong pulled out of the race at the last moment to allow JBJ of the WP to have a straight fight against the PAP. JBJ's victory in that by-election is quite romanticized today, with so many opposition members such as current Sec-Gen Low Thia Khiang say inspired them to join opposition politics.
Similarly, in 1979, the opposition cooperated to field Dr Lee Siew Choh (former leader of B.S., later NCMP for WP). Two years earlier, the opposition made way for JBJ to contest in Radin Mas.
Without by-elections, we might not have people like JBJ (1977, 1979 and 1981 by election), Teo Chee Hean (1992 by election), Chiam See Tong (1971 by-election as an independent in Potong Pasir), Dr. Tony Tan (1979 by-election in Sembawang SMC)
I wouldn't be surprise if the PM decides to call for an election to renew its ranks. If the PAP is really afraid of the electorate, I think it has then failed its duties of explaining to the public its policies. I think the argument should be for the PAP, should I take the opportunity in 2008 to renew the ranks or not? There were substantive talents such as that of Dr. Tan in 1979 and Col. Teo Chee Hean in 1992.Iin 2008 with a more educated populace, surely the PAP can convince people of similar talents to run for office considering it has been 2 years since the last election was called?
Posted by Wayne | July 15, 2008 3:25 PM
"Don't forget that inflation (consumer prices) were in the double digits (22% in 1974) in the early 1970s (but fell rapidly towards the end of the 1970s), growth was not as good as it was in the 1980s!"
Wayne,
you forget the the disruptive role of internet and other technologies that are widespread now and which non-existent during those time in 1970s, 1980s. Internet is what the government fears because it combines collective intelligence, intelligence gathering and analysis that by now have broken the stronghold of MSM. And combined with increasing ERP, inflation, honest mistake etc by the ruling party, it will be suicide for government to call a by-election. Well, if by-election do happen, IBA's case and MKS's saga will surely blow up by the opp party. Will ruling party take the chance ? Will LKY and his son so stupid again to even test the water like they do during Dr Chee's recent court case ?My bet is as good as many of the commenters here.
Posted by David | July 15, 2008 6:46 PM
David,
This is not the forum to discuss the wider impact of the internet in the contemporary age but I maintain that the impact of the internet on the electorate is dependable on the larger context of the times. I do stand by contemporary analysts who argue that the effects of internet in agitating for change in the political status quo is limited, especially in Singapore. Beyond that to think temporally, When the telegram, Morse code, fax machine (what I called the fax machine phenomena of the Tiananmen incident), telephone, cell phone, and now the internet was broadly disseminated, one would be tempted to say in his or her times that that the new fanged technology has the potential to change politics and society (a more equal, livable, moral, etc tec society). Surely that without such technology, in seventeenth century China where rumors mills and political disturbances are transmitted by traveling monks and merchants rapidly in market towns, in fifteenth century France by traveling monks through different parishes across diverse locales, in eighteenth century Japan with major highways across the Kyushu Island propelling the economy forward and changing the societal beings of the shogunate before Commodore Perry supposedly "opened up" Japan?
Of course, everyone here could be right in saying that the Singapore context of 2008 is very different with increasing apparent problems with state-society relations fueled by a global sense of injustice underpinned by transnational human rights concerns.
But how different is today's "difficult for the PAP" phenomena as compared to for example, the Graduate Mother controversy in the 1980s? Why do we easily dismiss the high levels of inflation in the early 1970s as compared to lower levels in 2008? Are somehow the voters of the 1970s less informed because they are "less educated", "lack of information access", "lack of empathy with wider non-materialistic concerns?" What is the internal logic (is it simply apathy and ignorance) of voters voting PAP? Are voters necessarily fickle-minded and presentist?
Posted by Wayne | July 15, 2008 10:38 PM
Somewhat, PAP may surprises us all by calling for a by-election.
it will benefit PAP tremendously to check out the ground sentimental now before GE2011 as they got at least 3 years to correct any "deficients" as a reuslt of this by election.
Jurong GRC maybe a perfect test bed for all thsoe resentments agaisnt PAP:
1) Jurong GRC maybe one of the poorest wards with lots of working-class SIngaporeans.
2) A large pool of "foregin talents turned citizen" living there.
3) Plenty of worker dormitories, foreign workers - a good test of resentments agaisnt foreigners will be translated at the polling station.
4) Test of Singaporeans' actual disapproval of present PAP Government policies.
5) COmapre rating of 2008 against GE2006.
6) Gauge the strength of a untied Opposition. Mirage or reality check.
7) A reality check on the popularity fo Lee Hsien Loong Government.
Better to lose a GRC now than a few more in GE2011.
I tend to see this as PM Lee Hsien Loong starting to assert his presence within PAP by calling a Jurong GRC By-Election,a nd over-riding present Old Guards' dominance of clinging to absolute control and absolute political power by whatever means and at whatever cost to Singapore.
Go for it, PM Lee Hsein Loong, as it signals your "Coming of Age" and emerging out of the overwhelming shadow of your father.
Posted by Lai CF | July 16, 2008 5:13 PM
Hi Wayne (author),
Is Steve Chia still into politics?
I thought he declared never to try again?
For a moment, I thought your article was published several years back.
cheers.
Posted by James Tan | July 16, 2008 5:37 PM
James,
Thanks for your comments. As of May 2008, I believe that Steve Chia is still helping out with NSP's events. He is also currently a council member of the NSP's CEC. See
http://www.nsp.sg/nspcec.php
Contrary to many people's belief, the opposition in recent years doesn't just come out every 4 years. See their May Day 2008 photos at
http://www.nsp.sg/photos.php?Album=14
Whether or not he will contest again will be up to Steve Chia's decision, but as seen from photos of NSP events, Steve Chia is still helping out in their affairs.
Lai CF,
Interesting comments especially with regards to the Old guards and the new guards with respect to the calling of a by-election.
Posted by Wayne | July 16, 2008 6:59 PM
I am a Dreamer.
To call or not to call for a by-election can be seen as a tussle between NEWBlood and Old Guards.
MM Lee Kuan Yew, DPM Wong Kan Seng and Company are perceived obsessed with their iron-grip on absolute control and absolute political power, and will never give a millimetre to any opposition party.
On teh other hand, NEWBlood sensing the sentimentals ont eh ground, a growing disquiet and chaffing over the stigma of being derided for "riding into the political offices on the tailcloak of a "strong leader in a GRC" will like to release their pent-up frustratigns in really, really winning an election through their own merits.
If those NEWBlood are even so scared of challenging and winning against a perceived disuntied Opposition now (and may not even have the financial resources to field a GRC Team, let alone talents to attract the HDB heartlanders, that speak volumes of their capability and leadership quality in taking over from Old Guards to lead 21st Century Singapore.
Inetrnal pressure from within may cause PM Lee Hsien Loong to call for a by-election to prove his mettle as Leader of PAP.
And because he is in the seat due to his powerful father.
No matter how much his father bragged that it is his peers, and he had nothing to do with it, that elected Lee Hsein Loong as PM on August 12, 2004, I still am cynical and likened hsi selection to Henry Ford's saying:
"You can choose any color you like as long as it is black."
Jurong GRC By-election goes beyond as to whether PAP wil win or lose.
It signifies the coming of age of Lee Hsien Loong as a political leader of SIngapore and as to whether he is simply mouthing hsi speechwriter's writigns or he believes in these:
"A Government by consensus"
"Every Singaporean count"
"Alternative views and thinking out of the box"
"Staying Together Moving Ahead".
Today, it is a peaceful and affluent 21st Century Singaporean with a growing middle-class, 90% housed in HDB estates, the envy of all the free-world countries, vitualy universal literacy in SIngapore.
Will Lee Hsien Loong accepts IBA invitation for SIngapore to step into a liberal free world?
Or remain in his father's shadow, and continue Old Guards' policies in a perpetual "life & death" war against an imaginary Barsan Socialis for absolute political control in SIngapore..ad infinitum?
Posted by Lai CF | July 18, 2008 7:59 PM
You need 1 nominator, 1 seconder and 4 assentors (all must be citizens residing in Jurong GRC). Then you need 1 campaign manager, 5 election agents, at least 50+ polling agents and counting agents (must be citizens but not necessarily residing in Jurong GRC). PAP team sure have 200+ per GRC. 50+ is already a skeletal minimum estimate.
From www.findsingapore.net
******************************************************
Sadly, it is a pipe dream.
Noen of the current opposition parties like Reform Party, SDP, NSP and SDA can ever muster teh financial resources, candidates and manpower to contest in a GRC.
The only viable aprty witht eh financial resources and manpower is actually WP.
But I suspect that they are not ready to fight in Jurong GRX, merely consolidating their pwoer base in North East Singapore.
That is the sad statte of political opposition in Singapore today - short of funds, short of helpers and short of talents.
Posted by Lai CF | July 19, 2008 7:44 PM
A by-election, dream on. Plans are already on the drawing board to make the GRC teams bigger (6-10 members), increase the deposit, more stringent eligibility requirements, dissolve a few constituencies, redraw the boundaries (Jurong becomes is part of Changi GRC if need be) so ensure the ruling party remains in power, not because they have the support but because the playing field is no longer fair. We might be the only country where the opposition gets 33.3% of the votes and has only 2 seats out of 84 in parliament.If not for the GRC scheme do you honestly think the political situation will be the same. If it were all single seats, the old man and his cronies will be busy working hard for the people and ensuring that they win their support instead of taking such a arrogant position to chide and blame the population for their shortcomings.Yes, we can give them credit for what they have done but unforetunately many people do not realise that many of our ills are due to myopic planning.
Posted by Wish | July 28, 2008 2:56 PM
Aiyah, you think that opposition would really win if there is a by election. Especially if you wanna compete against these people such as Halimah, Grace Fu and Lim Boon Heng. All of them heavyweight ones you know. Furthermore, seriously, Thaman is what Singapore needs as next PM although he might be too old once LHL retires.
Even if there is a SMC by election in Bukit Batok, you think even candidates such as JBJ can think. With full grassroot support, PAP machinery and strong personalities as I mentioned.
What Singapore opposition lacks of is Visionary of a charismatic leaders, Strong organisation structures grassroot rapports and Able and Trustworthy lieutenants
Take a look across the causeway. They have
1) One charismatic leader - Definite plan to developing the countries
2) Strong and Able lieutenants. Some of them are scholars from instituitions such as Oxford. Mind you unlike what some have mentioned, they don't wear slippers
3) Strong political awareness. Seems extremely lacking simply because PAP has always be on their toes all the time
I have to agree with some PAP leaders. There would only be a landslide victory either side. My sincere hope once that happens the oppositions better have strong leadership which unfortunately lacking.
One interesting development across the causeway. Take a look at Penang government (DAP led/ PAP abandoned party). Landslide victory! Immediate implementation of CAT. Competency, Accountability and Transparency. Sounds like PAP. Chief Minister taking budget flights. Sound familar with LKY during early days
Posted by timothy loo | August 1, 2008 10:50 AM