Why nobody has bothered to make a comment yet? So let me give it a go: Nice try.

Wow! Finally a new post! You guys must've been busy procrastinating!

Anyway, I doubt you're going to get a free beer from Sze Meng. While economic depressions are always sweet moments for elections, there are unfortunately too many ill news as you've listed. Sure, their effects on election results are only short term (i.e. by next year this time, most people will probably just shrug them off), but still it may be a risky affair.

I'm no economic expert, but somehow I feel that this depression wouldn't be too short. Meaning, perhaps it's better to have the GE in 2010, when the bad news have faded from people's memories. Plus, if the economy recovers once they get elected, it's another glory on their track record.

Hi Jackson,

Thanks for the note. Anyway, let's see what happens in the coming year.

The downturn emerging from the current financial crisis will come in the first quarter, given all the layouts will take effect in the coming month. If you have seen how the establishment has reacted lately, from bringing the announcement of the budget in Jan and focusing on re-training of laid off workers and ensuring the economic infrastructure for the SMEs to grow and survive.

I am of the view that the electorate forget easily about the mistakes made and the ruling party will stay in power given that there is no viable alternative. In any case, the most important thing now is to ensure that the economy do not decline further.

Nice post BL,

A few asides in what will be the next non-event in the political calendar of this island-nation (your article notwithstanding lol):

- Elitism will likely rear its head again 2009/2010. The establishment will term it 'meritocracy' and decry opponent's attempts to play up 'the politics of envy'. Yet it seems odd that one can purport to have a system that fosters 'meritocracy' without stirring up a groundswell of envy at the same time. Truth be told, one cannot realistically expect to have one's cake and eat it...

- TKL seems to be playing to the gallery for the Elected Presidency position. Can he seriously be considered for the 'watchdog' role, given that the establishment is more than likely to further drain the people's coffers during this time of economic uncertainty?

Spursfan,

Thanks for the note.

On the politics of envy and the issue of meritocracy, the debate will go on and on like a broken record. Elitism exist in most societies but the more important thing is to have the space for diversity such that those who are behind earlier in their academic life can move forward when they found their niche.

On the other hand, I actually think that TKL's declaration to run for elected presidency is a poor move on his part. First of all, given it is so far away from the next elected presidency event, I am pretty sure that the detractors have a lot of time to dig up dirt and stir issues to discredit him, should he make any mistake from now to then. That's why in politics, as you see in most parts of the world, they usually declare their intention to run for office when the nomination process starts.

That being said, I prefer not to mix up his intention to run for elected presidency and his actions to help those investors to seek redress on the minibonds issue.

BL,

The issue of timing seems to me to one of whether the PAP can garner a crushing victory (increasing their share of votes cast) or 'merely' an overwhelming victory.

I particularly agree with your assessment of its strong grassroots organization as the second core strength of the PAP - this was, after all, an important element of Barack Obama's success too.

Ringisei,

Do I detect a certain sentiment that the establishment is not really able to attract the *very* best talent to serve its purposes? Would that be desirable in the first place?

I'm not sure about the grassroots point though. Sure it plays a major part here, but to compare our situation to that of the US is imho a little bit of a stretch. After all, to the populace it seems evident that there really isn't much of a comparative choice each time elections come around, as BL has pointed out.

If anything, it's a bit of a sad situation for the Republicans this time round mainly because they do have a sizable grassroots organisation, as well as a massive head start (McCain ran virtually unopposed in the Republican nomination), yet somehow managed to throw all that away.

It will take much more than a consistent 'change' slogan to unseat the establishment, even in these tough times...

The Republicans have a head start? This is the first time in over a year that I hear of such a thing. As far as I can tell, everything favored the Democrats this time, mostly because of an extremely unpopular Republican president who is blamed for anything and everything. And even though the Democrat dominated Congress has been getting consistently lower approval ratings that Bush for more than a year (like 10 points lower, than the already low), polls for most of the year shows the public favoring the (generic) Democrats over the Republicans by a respectable margin. The fact that Mccain ran virtually unopposed (which is not even completely accurate: remember the early days when everyone predicted that it has to be Guiliani vs. Clinton in '08?) in the nominations doesn't necessarily translate into an actual head start in the actual national elections.

spursfan,

About the establishment being unable to attract the very best talent (whatever that is), that's really more a Sze Meng point. ;)

I like to bang on about the grassroots organizations point because most media attention, discussion focuses on the candidates. The latter's important and the two certainly are linked by feedback loops. I'm looking forward to further data and analysis of how Obama's electoral offices and volunteers on the ground was built up so extensively; there will probably be something very worthwhile here for political parties of all stripes to learn from.

Huichieh,

To clarify, it wasn't too long ago that SA was debating the phenomenon known as Obamamania, and if we retrace the lines of thought and subsequent comments, it would be evident that an Obama victory was far from certain (I had suggested that perhaps McCain would turn pragmatic and see off the Obama challenge).

Clinton was still battling Obama for the Democratic nomination, months after McCain had seen off Guiliani & co. for the Republican nomination. The questions that seem to be relevant (given the long-established records of both political parties) are 'What on earth was McCain doing in the months leading up to the Presidential vote? What happened to the basic groundwork at grassroots level? Is it reasonable to say that a coherent message could not be sent out to Republican (or American) voters through months of preparation?'

To place McCain's defeat primarily on the Bush effect would be quite an oversimplificaion. Besides the gross disparity in campaign funding, which seemed to hurt McCain in the days leading up to the vote, the lack of a consistent campaign message, as well as an awful gaffe in terms of saying that the economy was fine in October, only to have the banks being bailed out days later, that ultimately did McCain in.

I would have hit rather hard on Obama's lack of experience, and his being bad for the taxpayer, instead of going all over the map (Obama being 'a terrorist', 'wet behind the ears' in terms of foreign policy, etc). In that sense, perhaps the time advantage McCain had would have been put to better use, and could even have enabled him to reverse the massive tide of negativity against the Republicans, Bush notwithstanding.

ringisei,
Noted both your points, and agree that grassroots plays a critical role in elections. So perhaps some party will start a massive Facebook appeal for our next GE, and organise bus trips for voters on Voting Day to ensure that they garner as much of the popular vote as possible? ;-)

Indeed our pre-independence past may have had some similarities to the wave of change in the US? I'm not sure if I read that bus rides were given to voters even back then?

spursfar,

Yes, bus rides were organized for voters back then. A potent tool when private vehicle ownership was very low and public transport was in its infancy. But busing by political parties is banned under Sect 71 of the Parliamentary Elections Act. Feels kinda of redundant in this day and age but given the link to Obamania, perhaps not. ;)

ringisei,

Thanks for the validation, for a minute I thought I was imagining the busing thing -- my internal RAM chips are due for an upgrade lol ;-)
Didn't know about Sect 71, which is rather unfortunate, but then again why am I not surprised?
So much for a 'level playing field'...

No I wasn't suggesting that McCain lost only because of the Bush effect, merely to point out that the Republicans faced a very big obstacle this year because of it. Yes, the other big one was the economy--which was a real god send for the Democrats. To be fair, nobody--the Dems not the least--predicted that the crisis would happen, at that time. (If any one did make noise that it could happen, it was ironically, McCain himself, years ago.)

Hi Bernard

Nice stuff. But if we factor in the 1996 gloom and the subsequent January 2nd 1997 election, the PAP won merely 65% of the votes despite the economic uncertainty then. However, it did climb to 75.3% during the 2001 gloom and tumbled down to 66.6% in 2006 when things were looking bright on the horizon.

Whether the parliamentary election would take place next year or not as a tactic to prey on Singaporeans' insecurity, we just have to wait for Budget 2009 next month and what is being redistributed. The budget handouts during election year are usually the most enticing e.g. 2001's New Singapore Shares ($2.45 billion redistributed), 2006's Progress Package ($2.6 billion redistributed). In contrast, the redistribution to individuals in the budget for 2003 and 2004 were about $92 million and $240 million respectively.

If the 2009 budget entails any $2 billion plus handout, I think you just might get your free beer!

Lau Ah Pek

Hi TVD,

Looking at the budget numbers you put in, my estimate given the tax rebates and the handouts required to sustain the SMEs in the economy, the 2009 budget should entail between 2.8B to 3B, looking at the two data points you provided in your comment.

One thing to look out for is the electorate's mood towards the town council investments fiasco recently. While I see the continuous online effort to demand an explanation, the PAP also stonewalled them with replies and committee to review the adequacy of the investments. The aggregation of "small" incidents from town councils fiasco, the slow response from MAS to deal with the Lehman minibonds and a couple of issues that are more economically related (and not politically related) may turn against them when the election will to be called next year. However, even if the stars don't shine well for the PAP, the opposition are not in a better position with the lack of talent and a powerful grassroot machinery that will take years to build.

If we have polling like how they conduct in the US, we might be able to see where all this is going at least with some degree of probability. Of course, everyone is like a blind man feeling the elephant with respect to the way how Singaporeans will vote in the next general election. I am betting on luck for a free beer this time round. :)

"...called after September 11 and the internet bubble bursted."
...Bursted?

This is the advantage of the ruling parties, they have the means and power to determine the most ideal time for election.

Think this just natural. Every person will do what is beneficial to them, this is human nature

So election 2009 is a realistic ? so how long we have to wait after they have start to nominate officer for election?

Is there a way for me to downgrade from Spore citizen to PR? I want to be Malaysian citizen and Spore PR too...Would I vote for PAP??!!!

I am an engineer. Over the past year, I have been squeezed out of my job by cheaper Chinese, Malaysian and Indian engineers. To them, $2000 is much when they remit back home. To me, I can't even afford a HDB, as frugal as I try to be, because the foreigners keeps driving home prices up on a daily basis. To add insult to injury, more of the foreign graduates replacing me had their university fees paid by our very own Ministry of Education. These graduates were not only given free college education, they were even given a month allowance of few hundred dollars each. While I had to work part time to support my education in NUS, and I still remain in debt to my student loan. (BITTER LAUGH!!!!).

I spent 2.5 years of my precious youth serving the SAF, during which I lost my first girlfriend during training. These foreigners were given PRs and citizenship in less than 2.5 years and they don't even need to serve. If war breaks out, I have to protect 1/3 of the population fuilled with these people?? (Assuming they dun run away at the 1st sign of trouble??!!) SAF even sent me a letter threatening to fine me for going overseas without telling them...to attend a funeral of my uncle...(BITTER LAUGH!!!!). Hey, here's an idea, why don't I migrate to another country before migrating back. That will save me more time!

I am working in odds jobs now 7 days a week. I am now almost 30 already. Inflation exceed my savings rate, and I find a home, marriage, kids and happy future beyond me. A simple illness or a year of unemployment could wipe me out. Yet the government is wondering why there are less marriages and births....(BITTER LAUGH!!!!)

I bear no love to my country now. My country does not need to be attacked, it has already be invaded and taken over. Thanks PAP!